What's really going on here?

[RDawson]

Yeah.

 

It's that phrase "relatively small number" that kills ya.

 

Cause if/when the virus "only" kills, say, 2% of the world population......that's "ONLY" 150 MILLION people!

 

A buddy of mine used to say "You can drown in water that's an AVERAGE one inch deep."

The devil is in the details. Those "relative numbers" and "averages" will kill ya!

 

Doh!

Yeah the 2% sucks but when you compare it to the different flu strains, alcohol deaths, tobacco, obesity, diabetes, etc it does take on a different view. While I’m a lucky person with a strong immune system, I refuse to live in fear. If I did I’d quit riding bikes, running boats and fishing and a lot of other things I do. We’ve had several deaths this year on our local lakes but no virus deaths on this end of the state yet. Another thing to think about is the 2% is of confirmed cases, very few are being tested so the true number of cases is actually much higher therefore the fatality percentage will be much lower than 2%. 80% of those who have it show light if any symptoms so how many of those get tested?

[Patch]

Another thing to think about is the 2% is of confirmed cases, very few are being tested so the true number of cases is actually much higher therefore the fatality percentage will be much lower than 2%. 80% of those who have it show light if any symptoms so how many of those get tested?

 

Hang on Mr. Dawson you can't pick and choose, they are both averages therefore carry such baggage as averages do.

 

This strain for all we know may mutate yet? For example look at the number of younger people coming down with it...

[RDawson]

[/color]

 

Hang on Mr. Dawson you can't pick and choose, they are both averages therefore carry such baggage as averages do.

 

This strain for all we know may mutate yet? For example look at the number of younger people coming down with it...

What am I picking and choosing? Published medical records say 80% of infected people will show mild to no symptoms. The only people being tested right now are those showing a high risk of having the virus. There is a less than 2% fatality rate of positive tested people in the US. Common sense tells that there is a large number of people with the virus are not being tested since they show no symptoms. Therefore the 2% fatality rate is not a number to use to estimate death unless every person is infected. That is like saying 1% (made up # since I don’t know) of American bikers will crash and then saying 1% of Americans will crash even though the majority will never ride a bike.

[Patch]

Jeepers Mr. Dawson I kind of got lost there? I must of gone thru a swarm of bugs that you obviously missed covering my entire windshield causing me to swerve into the back of the speeding truck bumper heading in the opposite direction!?

 

The flaw is (in my humble opinion) that your argument is based fatalities, not impact;)

[uncledj]

Just to put it in perspective......1.5 MILLION people worldwide died of TB in 2018....where was the panic?

[Patch]

Just to put it in perspective......1.5 MILLION people worldwide died of TB in 2018....where was the panic?

 

Hmm I thought Uncle you would have a stronger position then the above example!

 

The fact on TB by WHO: https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tuberculosis

 

 

This from the U.S. if you want to say it is an over reaction perhaps you'll see why below?

 

"Everyone in America and around the world who’s been paying attention in recent weeks is aware of the curves included in the chart. Importantly, on Tuesday, figures were added to the curves showing expected numbers of deaths with and without social distancing measures: 1,5 to 2.5 million deaths without social distancing, 100 to 240 thousand deaths with social distancing measures. "

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/04/02/accuracy-of-estimate-of-100000-to-240000-covid-19-deaths-hinges-on-key-assumptions/#39f20ada144e

[uncledj]

I'd breezed through the articles you've linked to. It seems to me that they're making claims to try to prove a negative. IMHO, there's waaayyy more people who've already had it, or currently have it, but had no need to be tested. and If that were the case, then the social distancing is largely pointless. I, and my wife had a weekend or two when we felt "off" over the past Winter....who's to say that we didn't "Get the Corona on US"?

Again, it's important to remember that the numbers they offer are only of confirmed cases, ...not accounting for all the folks who've had it and recovered, which means the stats don't mean much, ..unlike the TB numbers, as I'd be pretty sure that the vast majority of people who contracted TB were tested and treated.

 

I think the TB death toll and lack of a panicked response asks a very "strong" question...Your simply claiming that it's weak doesn't make it so.

 

 

I believe it was Mark Twain who said ...."There's 3 kinds of lies;....Lies.....Damned Lies.....and ....Statistics."

 

Stats can be used / spun as necessary to lead people in a desired direction.

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by uncledj

[N3FOL]

The science behind the mode of infection of COVID 19 is much more significant compared to TB. It is a rapid killer and hard to manage. There is no vaccine and medication treatment is still up in the air. TB is still a very deadly microbe that also needs special attention. IMO, a virus [emoji3083] is harder to treat than bacteria.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[cowpuc]

Time is proving that elderly, whose immune systems are already weakened, and those who have comprimised immune system are paying the big price.. Quarintining those in that category and/or let those of us in such a category practice self quarintining and then let all others go back to work seems reasonable too me.. Expecting the Government to solve all our problems has never worked, individual responsibility has been, and always will be the solution IMHO.

[Patch]

I'd breezed through the articles you've linked to. It seems to me that they're making claims to try to prove a negative.

I would think that of all the examples you may have chosen, your choice being TB could at the very least be well defended as a fare comparison. We all know of TB, certainly my in age group.

I think the TB death toll and lack of a panicked response asks a very "strong" question...Your simply claiming that it's weak doesn't make it so.

 

That was not my claim; but it is now!

 

I believe it was Mark Twain who said ...."There's 3 kinds of lies;....Lies.....Damned Lies.....and ....Statistics."

Stats can be used / spun as necessary to lead people in a desired direction.

 

 

So we are back to believing this is just a conspiracy?

Like for example not telling the masses but rather sharing known risks with only the elite:

"Two weeks after the sales, on 27 February, Burr made a speech in Washington in which he predicted dire consequences from the coronavirus, including school closures and cutbacks in company travel."

I would say that in my view that was a conspiracy against the better welfare of the greater good! Would you agree Uncle?

 

Is it a conspiracy to change CDC general mandate on federal stockpiles purchased by tax dollars to suit an unknown definition of "OURS"? Surely that has to be a conspiracy wouldn't you say Uncle?

Or just bungling around, you know like make it up as we get lost?

 

So then perhaps the debate could be who are the conspirators and, who are being misled?

"Burr told a small audience that the respiratory infection was “much more aggressive in its transmission than anything that we have seen in recent history” and “probably more akin to the 1918 pandemic”, an audio recording obtained by National Public Radio revealed."

Now if there is no conspiracy in need of defending and, there be some truth to the above; then enlighten me please.

In reality many of us assume to know but; because we can't seem to blend our thoughts in a fruitful manner then we share no common sense, no common ground, we stand divided man against man and this or the next something will win against us.

my thoughts on this matter

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/mar/20/republican-senators-sold-stocks-before-markets-plunged-on-coronavirus-fears-reports

 

 

[uncledj]

Your writing style doesn't lend itself to easy comprehension of your points....especially for a dolt like me.

Anyhoo.

My takeaway is that I'm a conspiracy theorist. That may be somewhat true, and I'd take it as a badge of honor, as it requires free thought, logical thinking, and (arguably) a healthy distrust of those in power.

I don't believe this situation is an actual conspiracy as much as a gentle nudging of a willing and gullible populace.

Certainly the virus is real, but my contention is simply that it is unworthy of a response requiring the shutdown of a booming economy. The damage done by that will be real, and holds the potential to be more damaging, even from a health perspective, than the virus itself. The people who are least able to rebound will be on the bottom end of the economic class.

The benefits of our Capitalist economy have lifted countless people across the globe..not just here, and when that system suffers, the benefits world wide will suffer as well, but it won't be as evident worldwide as it will be here.

What it will do is create a situation where people will clamor to the gubment to save them.....more gubment....less freedoms. Remember: A gubment big enough to give you everything you want is also big enough to take everything you have.

From what I can glean from your points, you rely on this very system to form your opinions. Good for you. You're mainstream, whereas I'm the denier, which makes me the nut.

Being considered a nut in a crazy world is another badge of honor.

If it makes you feel better, ....by all means....put on your face mask, grab some TP and hide in the closet sucking your thumb. That's just not me.

I realize that I won't be able to make you understand my perspective as we are of two different minds, and I believe we're at the saturation point so I'll not respond further. You can have the last word.

Take care and be safe. (I mean that)

Peace out

[Patch]

For the record, there is no doubt that my written English can be challenging to read. More often than not it is obvious to most I am a direct person which is also a sign of respect.

 

That aside my reading is also very different, as is my comprehension, I am not one to be easily swayed yet my eyes and ears remain open.

 

Your pension for conspiracy is also obvious however you missed the conspiracy in the link I provided this morning. That also says something! You see fire first where some us see the smoke before the fire and thus our reactions pose a different course and strategy.

 

I too wish you well! I will not be found in any closet sucking my thumb I can assure you of this. I will be eyes open tho, waiting to hear a logic that can be supported by commonsense and by such a thinking man as you describe yourself to be.

 

As mentioned the dived remains, one side has left the field.

Edited April 7, 2020 by Patch

[Semi-retired]

and If that were the case, then the social distancing is largely pointless.

 

I, and my wife had a weekend or two when we felt "off" over the past Winter....who's to say that we didn't "Get the Corona on US"?

 

I believe it was Mark Twain who said ...."There's 3 kinds of lies;....Lies.....Damned Lies.....and ....Statistics."

 

Hey, buddy....I don't believe we've had the pleasure to meet (at least I don't think we have!)....but I DO like the way YOU think!

I especially like that you have an appreciation for the "subjunctive mood". (Quote line #1 , above). Not many people use it these days.

 

In line 2, however, you've violated the conventional "polite" construction of putting the "other" person first. i.e. One would normally have said "My wife and I".

 

And for your/my last quoted text.....don't forget the famous Al Franken author, comedian, political commentator and (possibly a long-lost-cousin of Mark Twain), who wrote..."Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them"!

Be well, my friend. See you on these pages.