Dorian

[slowrollwv]

I hope all of our members stay safe over the weekend as this one could be bad.

[cowpuc]

I hope all of our members stay safe over the weekend as this one could be bad.

 

:sign yeah that:

 

Right there with ya Roller!!!! Prayers Up for all in the possible path of this one!!! Stay safe my friends!!

[djh3]

Well here in mid-state looking OK. Now that the storm has changed its path we are looking better. Steve over on the east coast has a lot more going on. Thankfully it looks like it is turning north a little more which is good.

[BlueSky]

The majority of hurricanes that strike the east coast come ashore where I live, Wilmington, NC. Looks like this one may do the same.

[cowpuc]

the majority of hurricanes that strike the east coast come ashore where i live, wilmington, nc. Looks like this one may do the same.

 

prayers up sky!!

[bpate4home]

Prayers up for all. Right now the path regarding the US is still pretty uncertain with the central path skirting the coast all together. Even if it does it will still be close enough to cause high wind, storm surges, rain and flooding. The Graphic below shows the model runs from 10:00 PM ET tonight. One outlier still shows it hitting FL. The error rate is still pretty high for more than a 2 day forecast. Let's hope for everyone that it just stays out to sea. More than 50 - 75 miles would be best.

 

 

 

https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

[Condor]

Good to see the models taking it up the coast. I have an older cousin in Port San Lucie, and originally all the models had Dorian running right over the top of her. I asked if she was going to bug out, but she said that's almost impossible with all the traffic. So she's dropping all the storm shutters and going to ride it out.... She's a tuffy.... :-)

[bpate4home]

Models are still keeping it off shore but they will still have to deal with storm surge, maybe for a couple of days. This thing is going to slow to ~4 MPH tonight. Right now models are pretty inline at about 30 - 50 Miles off shore. There will still be a ton of wind. Tomorrow night and early Tuesday will tell where and how far out this thing will be.

 

[etcswjoe]

The majority of hurricanes that strike the east coast come ashore where I live, Wilmington, NC. Looks like this one may do the same.

 

As much of a punch as this one has I think it is going to be a pain for all of us, hope it just turns back out to sea and dies out.

 

Evacuation order was just put out for our zone.

Edited September 1, 2019 by etcswjoe

[XV1100SE]

Watching the storm on the news. Stay safe !

[RandyR]

Currently it looks like the center will stay off the shoreline with a very-close hit on Cape Hatteras

[WRIDR]

The Winds are horrible.

 

BUT... if we heard correctly earlier this evening, they're talking 'Storm Surges' of 20'-30'!!

 

Many out-lying Islands - with thousands of folks living on them - are less than 20' tops - total obliteration.

 

We could be watching horrific property destruction - and loss of Life for the Unfortunate - some completely wiped off the map.

 

Is this the first catastrophic impact from Global Warming, or 'just' The Storm of Centuries? We fear the worst.

 

Rgds, WRIDR

[djh3]

I had to google it. The highest point on the Grand Bahama island that has been under this thing for days is 40'. What I have seen on news surge is around 15' or so. Probably will be higher when its all said and done.

As far as Florida, it's looking better. Forecast now for it to stay even further east an off the coast.

[BlueSky]

Yeah, a high school buddy owns a beach house on the island of Ocracoke on the outer banks. I'm sure he's worried. I won't even be home in Wilmington, NC for the storm. I drove my old 02 F150 4x4 to Denver and picked up my wife who flew out last Friday and we are currently in Montana. We drove over the "Road to the Sun" in Glacier National Park today. She flys back next Sunday and I'm not sure when I'll be back home. I had been planning to do a little more touring before getting back. But, if our home is damaged I'll be going home as fast as possible. I've driven about 3k miles so far. Woulda been something on the Venture.

 

By the way, on the trip out to Denver, I think I saw as many trikes on the road as two wheelers. Says something about the average age of motorcycle riders maybe. Seems mostly two wheelers in Wyoming and Montana though.

[WRIDR]

Thanks for the correct Info DJH3 - that sounds 'better' than what we heard, but still...

 

At age 76, several of our Friends live full time in Florida. Many are inland, due to housing prices. BUT one Couple lives bayside, roughly 200 yards from the Inter-coastal outlet at Stuart (think that's the correct name?). Any kind of significant Surge would create MAJOR problems for them.

 

Rgds, WRIDR

[bpate4home]

Dorian is still tracking off shore for FL by 30 - 70 miles. Remember that this thing is 250 miles wide right now. Long range modeling shows it much closer to to the Carolinas and a landfall there is possible Thursday or early Friday. The hurricane will become fatter on its northwest side as it comes up the east coast, so significant flooding may occur even well inland. It remains to be seen how intact Dorian’s wind core will be on its way north, but the storm could potentially still have winds over 100 mph near the Carolinas. Storm surge remains the primary concern. Hopefully the forecast is accurate in that it will be downgraded again to a Cat 2 storm Let's hope for even lower. Stay Safe.

 

[etcswjoe]

Dorian is still tracking off shore for FL by 30 - 70 miles. Remember that this thing is 250 miles wide right now. Long range modeling shows it much closer to to the Carolinas and a landfall there is possible Thursday or early Friday. The hurricane will become fatter on its northwest side as it comes up the east coast, so significant flooding may occur even well inland. It remains to be seen how intact Dorian’s wind core will be on its way north, but the storm could potentially still have winds over 100 mph near the Carolinas. Storm surge remains the primary concern. Hopefully the forecast is accurate in that it will be downgraded again to a Cat 2 storm Let's hope for even lower. Stay Safe.

 

https://www.venturerider.org/forum/attachment.php?attachmentid=117577

 

Thanks for the update, you are doing a much better job than the media, they add too much commentary.

[bpate4home]

Dorian is currently southeast of JXNVL who should be feeling Tropical force winds by now. They are still under a hurricane warning. By Midday - afternoon the winds could be hurricane force. It will remain off shore. JXNVL currently has light rain and a 15 MPH breeze. Storm surge predictions are much lower this morning for the Jacksonville area and estimated to be under 3'. A friend is riding it out on his boat in a harbor south near St Augustine and he says the winds are 30 MPH or better with a light rain. Dorian continues to weaken and its turn back east may keep it off shore completely. It's still too out to know. Stay safe our coastal Friends.

[etcswjoe]

Thanks for the update, The rain bands are just now starting to hit us.

[bpate4home]

Dorian is now off the coast of Savanna GA as a Cat 3 storm although it is expected to weaken again. The bad thing is that it seems to have slowed down which if that continues we will probably have landfall in the Carolinas. Both GA and SC should be seeing hurricane force winds now. Charleston SC appears to be getting 90+ MPH winds. There are reports of flooding already in GA and SC. Let's pray this thing moves faster and begins its turn eastward soon. I use a site, https://www.ventusky.com, where I can select the model and choose to see various settings like radar, wind speed, pressure etc. Stay safe.

Forecast

Models

[etcswjoe]

Thanks, lot of wind and a little rain. Still a few hours till we see the worst, looks like the whole SE coast is getting battered.

[etcswjoe]

Looks like Myrtle Beach was hit hard, flipped this building upside down.

 

[Karl324]

The damage looks pretty bad, hold on guys!

[bpate4home]

Dorian is due east of Charleston, which appears to be getting hammered. The models show that overnight it will come very close to Wilmington (around 1:00) and then start a northeasterly turn. Also, It still looks to hit the barrier islands of NC.

 

[Vickersguy]

Well, if it takes the western track, the eye should be about 27 miles from my house in Oriental. So far, so good tonight but it's still early. It's been quiet so far with gusts around 35 mph.