The Health of the Industry

[Condor]

Ran across this posted on the Drudge Report. Kinda makes you wonder what's going to happen as the base keeps aging..??

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-harley-davidson-results-idUSKBN1A3126

 

 

 

HARLEY bust as boomers age...

[BlueSky]

Non-college graduates haven't gotten pay increases in the last 20 years on average. That has to take its toll on the consumer market especially non-essentials like motorcycles. New auto/truck sales have slowed too.

[XV1100SE]

Thing is, has the economy improved since 2008 ? That was the peak until the bottom fell out. Since then, a number of people have lost full-time manufacturing jobs, and those that are working there has been little to no raises. Although the Government (Canada and U.S.) say that unemployment isn't that bad, they don't count the number of people that went from good paying full-time jobs to part-time minimum wage jobs, or those that have given up on finding a job. With manufacturers moving production to places with lower wages and benefits, the time of jobs for life working full-time for good wage is gone in Canada and the U.S.

 

Motorcycles are like sports cars - toys. Toys go first when there is a budget for food and shelter and it is tight to make ends meet.

[Venturous Randy]

With a few minutes of searching, it appears that the motorcycle worldwide is healthy and growing. I think there are a lot of factors in the USA that are having an impact as many are still feeling the results of a long term recession, rising medical costs, and few and far between raises. I think that for many, there is simply less disposable income compared to years ago.

This article is also primarily Harley Davison related and I agree that with an aging population, there will be less diehard HD disciples who will not ride anything else. With open minded people searching for a certain category bike, when looking at the big picture, HD is competing with a lot of very competent bikes, and Harleys are probably the best bike they have ever been.

I think the industry overall is healthy, but with younger buyers out there, times are a changing. I would love to see the new Venture become a market leader, or at least make a dent in the market. Here is one article I came across.

​http://www.bikebandit.com/blog/post/international-motorcycle-sales-surged-in-2016

Randy

[Dragonslayer]

Ran across this posted on the Drudge Report. Kinda makes you wonder what's going to happen as the base keeps aging..??

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-harley-davidson-results-idUSKBN1A3126

 

 

https://tse1.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.DTKDJJXNgEGrJX9f0MgYywEsDF&w=300&h=197&c=7&qlt=90&o=4&pid=1.7

 

HARLEY bust as boomers age...

I expect Harley and other manufacturers will be redirect their product research and development department to target a completely different product model.

[baylensman]

I think another factor is the number of young people not driving at all! Forget motorcycles, with the advent of ride sharing services like UBER and LYFT more and more young people aren't learning to drive. In my day it was a right of passage whether you were going to get a car or not. Now lots of them aren't bothering.

 

Also the younger set wants "COOL" bikes not cruiser or tourers. Of course they want full blue tooth and smart phone compatibility. GPS and what not. As auto drive expands with lane warning collision alert self parking. I'd fear to see some of these young ones attempt a motorcycles.

 

On the other hand I see some of the older gens in our park are buying spiders and trikes, that never rode before! So I don't know for sure if the "INDUSTRY" is declining or changing. I guess time will tell.

 

In my case I'll ride till I can't hold the bike up anymore at an intersection. On that day I buy a convertible!!

[djh3]

Polaris aint looking so stupid now are they? LOL They dumped Victory which was all big bikes, no sporty models per say all bagers for the most part sans the judge and couple others. They basically cut their losses and went with Indian. They have the scout to come in as their "entry level" bike like a sporty. I read an article a few days back that stated 2 of the highest selling bikes in the US were the Bolts and Kawasaki 900 Vulcan I think they still call it. You see the 20 somethings on the break your back sport bikes, but as they grow up they like something more comfy and go with the Bolt/Sportster/900 Kawa Now will any of those folks fill in where we exit and buy a touring bike? I dunno, as was stated they like this auto drive, Bluetooth, all the conveniences of home stuff. And exposed to the elements is probably not their bag. HD has been saturating the market with ez loans and lots of bikes for several years. It was bound to catch up.

[cowpuc]

Like what happened with the cowboy,, we r a dieing breed... just swapped on my 3rd tire 4 the season n can honestly say though,, the amount of sport touring bikes with younger folks on them out here in the west is encouraging. Been trying to teach em the code though. They gotta learn that even those air cooled bikes sitting in the shade cooling off need to be checked on to see if they are ok.. the market may be shrinking some but its farr from in trouble imho. Perhaps the hd market n its clones are sidelined some.

[bongobobny]

Watch Harley pull a fast one and come out with a liquid cooled shaft drive 4 cylinders touring bike and, maybe call it the Royal Venture...

[cowpuc]

Ran across this posted on the Drudge Report. Kinda makes you wonder what's going to happen as the base keeps aging..??

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-harley-davidson-results-idUSKBN1A3126

 

 

https://tse1.mm.bing.net/th?id=OIP.DTKDJJXNgEGrJX9f0MgYywEsDF&w=300&h=197&c=7&qlt=90&o=4&pid=1.7

 

HARLEY bust as boomers age...

 

With a few minutes of searching, it appears that the motorcycle worldwide is healthy and growing. I think there are a lot of factors in the USA that are having an impact as many are still feeling the results of a long term recession, rising medical costs, and few and far between raises. I think that for many, there is simply less disposable income compared to years ago.

This article is also primarily Harley Davison related and I agree that with an aging population, there will be less diehard HD disciples who will not ride anything else. With open minded people searching for a certain category bike, when looking at the big picture, HD is competing with a lot of very competent bikes, and Harleys are probably the best bike they have ever been.

I think the industry overall is healthy, but with younger buyers out there, times are a changing. I would love to see the new Venture become a market leader, or at least make a dent in the market. Here is one article I came across.

​http://www.bikebandit.com/blog/post/international-motorcycle-sales-surged-in-2016

Randy

 

A little more follow up on this thread.. Take a read on this one: http://theforneypost.com/index.php/government/1466-indian-motorcycle-franchise-will-not-open-in-forney-after-all,,, it seems Polaris's lack of sales in their Victory line and their ultimately closing of that line caused a 2 1/2 year planned Polaris Indian dealership investment to be shut down.. I still cannot help but think there might actually be something to the slowing down of the industry/market.. It does seem like there are more and more less actual "touring" of scoots going on out there IMHO,, and,, our local Rally's - similar to the Sturgis Rally the last few years dont seem to have the attendance they used to have.. On a different note,, it also seems like more and more people around West Michigan are using high end "touring bikes" (LOTs of HD's = still never see any Polaris's - seems like their screw up at the beginning with the Victory trannies and our local Polaris Dealership kicking Polaris out because of it has had lasting affect) being used as "bar hoppers"..

Definitely an interesting topic if one is into CTFW Jack!!

[Condor]

A little more follow up on this thread.. Take a read on this one: http://theforneypost.com/index.php/government/1466-indian-motorcycle-franchise-will-not-open-in-forney-after-all,,, it seems Polaris's lack of sales in their Victory line and their ultimately closing of that line caused a 2 1/2 year planned Polaris Indian dealership investment to be shut down.. I still cannot help but think there might actually be something to the slowing down of the industry/market.. It does seem like there are more and more less actual "touring" of scoots going on out there IMHO,, and,, our local Rally's - similar to the Sturgis Rally the last few years dont seem to have the attendance they used to have.. On a different note,, it also seems like more and more people around West Michigan are using high end "touring bikes" (LOTs of HD's = still never see any Polaris's - seems like their screw up at the beginning with the Victory trannies and our local Polaris Dealership kicking Polaris out because of it has had lasting affect) being used as "bar hoppers"..

Definitely an interesting topic if one is into CTFW Jack!!

 

Another thought on this subject. I think the public is shifting from a 'Wants', to a 'Needs' society.. I've been noticing this even in my own business. For the last 40 years I've been involved with 2 businesses that were in the leisure time area. Photography and Boating. Photography was a hell of a run lasting 18 years. Studio equipment, high grade collectibles, armature equipment. After I bought my first digital camera...a Casio 300 pixel.. I could see the handwriting on the wall, and spent the last two years selling off inventory... Good thing I did. Imagine cell phones that take a decent pic... So who needs a camera? Except for the collectible market they're a dime a dozen... Like the camera biz I morphed over into the boating biz. They both started off as a hobby and evolved into a business. After a dozen years selling boating equipment things also started fade fast. Blame it on the economy, but all of a sudden people were more interested in filling the gas tank, putting food on the table, and a roof over their heads. Transportation, Housing, and eating.. All needs. In these times the unnecessary items aren't so important and longer. Motorcycles for the most part are luxury items. Except for the younger crowd and their cheaper sport bikes, very few large bikes are being sold. And those that are on the road are ridden by older riders. You know..the guys that had the bucks and bought their bikes back when they cold still afford to pay and play... The M/C market has changed, and if it is going to survive the product has to change, and things have to get worse...before things get better... Look at those 3rd world countries. There the M/C has become a necessity. IMHO

[XV1100SE]

Follow the jobs...

 

Consider the number of jobs and industries that moved to third world countries. If you look at the markets for China, South Korea...sales in bikes and cars are still growing. Why? Manufacturing companies moved jobs to those regions because of the cheap labour. The people have steady jobs, and can afford the "toys".

 

If you consider the jobs in North America, look how many factories have shut down. People lost good paying steady jobs and those that could find work are generally working part-time jobs for minimum wage. This isn't a political comment but the way they do statistics for unemployment, if someone is working (doesn't matter if they dropped their hours of work or salary by half or more), as long as they have "a job", they are employed. Stats also don't count people that gave up looking for work. And even minimum wage jobs are under threat because companies would rather install a kiosk to take orders rather than pay someone the rising minimum wage. (think McDonalds).

 

Follow the jobs, and the money. Less high paying jobs here, people can't afford the luxury items or toys. People here generally have a rising debt ratio too. People overseas have gained steady, well paying (better wages than they were used to) jobs and have money in their pockets to spend on things that weren't possible before.

[BlueSky]

Maybe I'm all wrong, but it would appear to me that smaller, lighter, less expensive bikes that are COMFORTABLE for several hours of riding would sell. Maybe I'm wrong. Comfortable, what a weird idea!

[Condor]

Follow the jobs...

 

Consider the number of jobs and industries that moved to third world countries. If you look at the markets for China, South Korea...sales in bikes and cars are still growing. Why? Manufacturing companies moved jobs to those regions because of the cheap labour. The people have steady jobs, and can afford the "toys".

 

If you consider the jobs in North America, look how many factories have shut down. People lost good paying steady jobs and those that could find work are generally working part-time jobs for minimum wage. This isn't a political comment but the way they do statistics for unemployment, if someone is working (doesn't matter if they dropped their hours of work or salary by half or more), as long as they have "a job", they are employed. Stats also don't count people that gave up looking for work. And even minimum wage jobs are under threat because companies would rather install a kiosk to take orders rather than pay someone the rising minimum wage. (think McDonalds).

 

Follow the jobs, and the money. Less high paying jobs here, people can't afford the luxury items or toys. People here generally have a rising debt ratio too. People overseas have gained steady, well paying (better wages than they were used to) jobs and have money in their pockets to spend on things that weren't possible before.

 

Everything you're saying is true... to an extent. However, the reason jobs are going offshore is the cheap labor, and a willingness of that work force to work for less. If it weren't for that cheap labor the consumer.. i.e. the U.S. economy for the most part.... would implode and be in even worse shape than it is today... And that cheap laborer isn't going out and buying cars and toys. They are buying their needs, and thankful they can. I guess it all boils down to we have developed an entitlement nation mentality. Unwilling to do the menial jobs because they don't pay enough to have expendable cash, and live above our means. Everyone want's to stay employed, make a decent wage, and buy cheap. An oxymoron idea... IMHO....

[BratmanXj]

On a different note,, it also seems like more and more people around West Michigan are using high end "touring bikes" (LOTs of HD's = still never see any Polaris's - seems like their screw up at the beginning with the Victory trannies and our local Polaris Dealership kicking Polaris out because of it has had lasting affect) being used as "bar hoppers"..

 

HD's highest selling bike is the Street Glide...a lowered "custom" looking touring bike with less touring amenities than a comparably priced FLHT Classic. Why? Because it looks cool, and its not like the younger people are buying them to actually tour on. Like you stated they have become bar hoppers and you get weird looks from those people if you want to ride more than 100 miles in a day.

 

You in MI see the same "local" affect I do with our proximity to the Milwaukee home-base of HD. Most cruiser/heavy tourer riders around here don't even realize there are very qualified touring bikes outside of HD or Goldwings. When I go out riding with my buddies (who are all HD guys) most people we run into have never seen/heard of a Venture.

[saddlebum]

Another thing to consider is the fact that while cost of living has skyrocketed wages have not kept pace. Prime example shop rates for truck repairs have jumped 80 to 90 % at dealer ships over the past 15 years, while mechanics pay rates have only increased by an average of 30% and Trucker drivers pay scales specially for owner operators have barely increased if any at all. Minimum wage for the unskilled has barely moved until recently while many of the companies themselves make huge profits. Many claim they cannot increase wages because the cost of doing business has gone up yet while many of the owners and vips draw wages in amounts that would take ten lifetimes to spend while others can barely pay their bills and put food on the table Or live in multi-million dollar homes and estates while many can barely afford a small bungalow.

 

So having said all this it obvious that consumer spending as a result is way down. Business likes to claim that they create jobs but if there is no market for their product how can they. It takes a balance of consumer buying power and production to create jobs not just one or the other.

 

A farmer once said that Money is like manure. You can keep pilling it up in one spot and though the pile continues to get bigger it accomplishes little on the whole, Or you can spread it around where it will do a whole lot of good.

Edited September 6, 2017 by saddlebum

[RandyR]

A farmer once said that Money is like manure. You can keep piling it up in one spot and though the pile continues to get bigger it accomplishes little on the whole, Or you can spread it around where it will do a whole lot of good.

 

Its easier for current politicians to get contributions from a single fat-cat who is benefiting from the laws and economic policies, than it is to get an equal contribution amount from a hundred workers trying to save enough money to put their kids thru school and save enough for retirement.

[cowpuc]

I still cant help but think it all boils back down to major change in who/what we are as a people.. I think somehow, the pros and cons of the digital/computer/information age may also be at play here and not just thru robotics in manufactering (all though - that has had a huge effect for need for laborers) but even more so on what a satisfying lifetime now consists of..

Back when I was a kid I was so broke I couldnt pay attention but, because of my love for motorcycles I spent every dime I could muster on any form of two wheels with a motor I could afford (picking blue berries, paper route,, playing poker ). When I turned 16 I woke my mom up at 7 a.m. and said "get up!! I HAVE to get my license!! and my best buddy (had a license) rode my Honda 350 down to the DMV so I could get my Cycle Endorsement on the same day.. Folks = to me = ALL of that was done as an act of getting to FINALLY find out how freedom feels = it was a MUST DO!! Thing is,, at that point in our local area's era,, LIFE was just like that everywhere - again,, IMHO..

Fast forward to the present day and age = human beings (teenagers and millenials are human beings too ya know) no longer seem to find the fulfillment needs for their search for finding out how freedom feels in that same way.. Times have changed.. Many folks find happiness in life by racing motorcross, fishing, hunting, ice skating, ski diving, swimming, playing tennis, robbing banks, stealing cars and on and on and on DIGITALLY!! I personally think this and this alone has had a HUGE impact on our sport..

Also,,, do to this AND because of the inherent dangers associated with even attempting to walk across a roadway = many of those same human beings simply have no use for even a drivers license.. Back in my early days,, if a young person didnt want a drivers license their parents would probably have taken them to an ER to find out what was wrong with em..

As usual,, I am probably way out there and shallow minded with all this ,,, but I still think that we are experiencing an actual change in the paradigm of what constitutes the fulfillment of the pursuit of happiness...

[WildBill1]

The American Dream is turning out to be a Nightmare for a lot of our children and grandchildren. Seems like no matter who we send to Washington for leadership they turn out to be self serving in their own agenda, "Power Mongers".

[BlueSky]

The American Dream is turning out to be a Nightmare for a lot of our children and grandchildren. Seems like no matter who we send to Washington for leadership they turn out to be self serving in their own agenda, "Power Mongers".

 

I think things are changing a little for the better. 3% annual growth in the gdp last quarter! The current admin is trying.

[RandyR]

I think things are changing a little for the better. 3% annual growth in the gdp last quarter! The current admin is trying.

 

That usually means that they've hired a new accountant who is forgetting to count something on the debit side of the ledger.

[grubsie]

I think things are changing a little for the better. 3% annual growth in the gdp last quarter! The current admin is trying.

 

That wasn't annual growth. It was only one quarter. You need 4 straight quarters of 3% to call it annual. Has nothing to do with the current admin or previous admin. Business and profits control it. There were several 3% quarters during the previous admin but balanced out around 2% over 4 full quarters.

 

Follow the jobs...

Consider the number of jobs and industries that moved to third world countries. If you look at the markets for China, South Korea...sales in bikes and cars are still growing. Why? Manufacturing companies moved jobs to those regions because of the cheap labour.

 

Eggzactly! And all this talk about lowering taxes on businesses in this country that will bring the jobs back and create millions of good jobs is a full bag of crap. These businesses could be tax exempt and it still won't happen. It's just more profit at the top. The cost percentage difference of labor in this country versus the 3rd world countries far exceeds any possible tax reductions all the way down to zero. We can't afford to work for the wages in other countries due to the cost of living in the US, so stagnant wages are here to stay.

Anyone who knows anything about running a business knows that labor is the biggest cost. My business has morphed from having 12 employees 30 years ago to all subcontract workers now. Still costly, but far less expensive than carrying them as employees. Any tax breaks would only go in my pocket. Although it would be nice for me, it does nothing for anybody else nor would it increase any business.

 

Non-college graduates haven't gotten pay increases in the last 20 years on average. That has to take its toll on the consumer market especially non-essentials like motorcycles. New auto/truck sales have slowed too.

 

I restore 1960's Hondas as a hobby and sometimes sell them when I need $ for a new project. I also buy and flip used motorcycles that come my way if I think it is a good deal. Most that I buy are from people that need the cash. The market has changed considerably. Years ago, the bikes would sell right away and usually for asking price. I typically sell in the $1,500 to $6,000 range and people always had cash in hand. Now, people are low balling or trying to trade things or they have to get loans. It's sad really. There's just no expendable money out there for blue collar working class people. When the day comes that I have to finance a $1,500 motorcycle, it will be the day that I give them up. It would be all too obvious that, that money belongs somewhere else in my life.

[tomephil]

Ya, but I thought HD was a clothing company that sold bikes.

Doesn't HD stand for Hundred Dollars?

I'm sure their clothing line is doing good...

 

..... Well, someone had to say it.

[BlueSky]

That wasn't annual growth. It was only one quarter. You need 4 straight quarters of 3% to call it annual. Has nothing to do with the current admin or previous admin. Business and profits control it. There were several 3% quarters during the previous admin but balanced out around 2% over 4 full quarters.

 

I thought 3% annual growth in the second quarter was definitive but evidently it can be misunderstood.